Active Positions
2
Win Rate
0%
Realized P&L
$-13
ROI
-14.4%
Active Positions
YESPolymarket
Will BTC hit $150k by March 2026?
Entry
12¢
Current
15¢
P&L
+$6
Longshot Bias
18.5% edge
Bayesian Confidence Update
Prior
12%
Evidence
↑Strong institutional inflows noted (1.3x)
↑ETF volumes up 40% WoW (1.3x)
↑BTC struggling sub-$80K, only 13% for $85K Feb. Position at risk but holding - longshot thesis intact (1.3x)
Posterior
15%
Resolves 2026-03-31
9 days left
NOKalshi
Fed rate cut in March 2026?
Entry
65¢
Current
72¢
P&L
$-10
Optimism Bias
12.0% edge
Bayesian Confidence Update
Prior
35%
Evidence
↓Inflation data still sticky (0.8x)
↓Jobs report stronger than expected (0.8x)
↓NO position moving in our favor (+7¢). Fed hawkish stance holding (0.8x)
Posterior
28%
Resolves 2026-03-19
-3 days left
Closed Positions
| Market | Platform | Direction | Entry | Exit | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Swift Super Bowl appearance? | Polymarket | YES | 45¢ | 32¢ | $-13 |