Roger's Idea Backlog

Raw idea dump from July 16, 2025. Updated with progress as of January 29, 2026.

Active Projects (In Progress)

🟢 Forex Swing Trading

Status: Phase 2 complete, backtesting Location: ~/clawd/forex-signals/ Findings: Support-Stop strategy on Daily = 56.2% win rate, 2.0R max DD. 1-hour doesn't work. Next: Test with 3.0 ATR filter for more signals

🔴 Prediction Market Arbitrage — KILLED (2026-02-09)

Status: Confirmed dead. 91 opportunities, zero net profitable after fees (9-12% friction). Location: ~/clawd/prediction-arb/ Pivot: Bias exploitation strategy (~/clawd/prediction-bias/) showing +$3.50 on $121. Scale that instead.

🟢 Crypto 15-Minute Signal System for Kalshi ⭐ NEW

Status: MVP complete, ready for paper trading (2026-02-05) Location: ~/clawd/crypto-signals/ Strategy: Probability-based signals (TAP/MGA/MRP/VRC) for 15-min BTC markets Key Insight: Kalshi prices lag spot by 1-3 minutes — enter during minutes 4-10 Infrastructure: Dashboard, Binance websocket, Cloudflare worker, signal logging Next: Paper trade for 1 week, then evaluate for live trading

🟢 Bug Bounty Crash Mining

Status: Data collected, analysis ongoing Location: ~/clawd/projects/bug-bounty/crash-mining/ Data: 34,906 SIGSEGV + 1,208 SIGBUS from Mozilla Next: Cross-reference with known CVEs, deep-dive JS GC bugs

🟢 Gun Deals Scraper + TacticalSavings Site

Status: ✅ DEPLOYED + ALERTS + AFFILIATE + INTERACTIVE UPGRADE (2026-03-17) Location: ~/clawd/gun-deals/ Features: Scraper, parser, 🔥 rating, web UI, hourly ingestion, Slack alerts, affiliate links Running: launchd job com.clawd.gun-deals (every hour) Database: 150+ deals tracked New (2026-02-03): Full affiliate link conversion system! Supports AvantLink, CJ Affiliate, and direct programs. Revenue Path: Just needs Roger to sign up for affiliate programs:

AvantLink: PSA (5-8%), Primary Arms (3-10%), Academy, Gun Mag Warehouse
CJ Affiliate: Bass Pro, Cabela's, OpticsPlanet
Direct: MidwayUSA Commands:
python3 scripts/affiliate_report.py — See revenue opportunity
python3 scripts/slack_alert.py --affiliate-report — Check conversion stats TacticalSavings Site Upgrade (2026-03-17): Smart fire ratings (engagement-based, proper distribution), interactive deal tracker (search/filter/sort), 17 category pages, 1,264 review articles. 1,285 total pages. Deploy blocked on CF token. Next: Roger fixes CF token permissions → deploy TacticalSavings + Carry API. Roger signs up for AvantLink → enable PSA affiliate (36 deals = highest volume)

🟢 Carry API (Gun Law API) ⭐ HOT

Status: ✅ ALL 50 STATES COMPLETE (2026-03-10), tested locally, deploy-ready Location: ~/clawd/carry-api/ Tech: TypeScript Cloudflare Worker, JSON data, zero-log privacy architecture Data: All 50 US states with real statute citations — complete coverage Roger engagement: HIGH — drove the conversation, named the product, suggested privacy architecture, asked for pitch paragraph (Mar 10) Revenue: API subscription tiers ($29-299/mo for developers) Blocker: CF API token needs Workers Scripts Edit permission (current token is Pages-only) Next: Roger updates CF token permissions → deploy. Then: API key management, landing page polish, reciprocity matrix validation, find first customer

🟢 Can I Carry Here? (Consumer Web App) ⭐ HOT

Status: ✅ DEPLOYED + ROUTE PLANNER + MULTI-PERMIT + OPTIMIZER (2026-03-14) Location: ~/clawd/carry-app/ URL: https://carry-app.pages.dev CF project name: carry-app Tech: Static HTML/CSS/JS, d3-geo SVG map, CF Pages Features: Interactive US map, reciprocity color-coding, travel checklist, detailed state laws, 🚗 Trip Route Planner (BFS pathfinding, blocked state detection, alternate routes, FOPA guidance), 🔫 Multi-Permit Support (select multiple permits, merged coverage), 💡 Permit Optimizer (which permit to get next), Popular Route Presets Data: All 50 states with full carry data + constitutional carry detection Route Planner (2026-03-13): Select home→destination, see every state on the route with carry status, warnings (duty to inform, mag limits, weapon bans), alternate routes avoiding problem states, FOPA transport protection info Multi-Permit (2026-03-14): Select 1+ permits (e.g. home state + Utah non-resident), see union coverage on map. Permit Optimizer shows top permits to add for max coverage. 8 popular route presets. Share Trip (2026-03-14): URL state persistence (permits + route in hash), share button with modal (copy link, copy summary, native share API), OG meta tags for social previews Permit Guide (2026-03-15): All 50 states have permit application data — cost, processing time, training requirements, application URLs, non-resident availability. Optimizer upgraded with 4 sort modes (coverage, value, cheapest, fastest) + cost/training badges. Status (2026-03-15): Full trip planning platform — 5 major features in 3 days. Demo-ready. Permit Comparison (2026-03-15): Side-by-side comparison table for 2-4 permits — 13 data points (cost, validity, training, processing time, reciprocity, renewal, permitless carry, duty to inform, mag limits, stand your ground, preemption, red flag laws). Best values highlighted. Accessible from Optimizer → "Compare Top Picks" button. Preemption Warnings (2026-03-15): Route planner now warns when passing through states without full preemption (local city/county laws may differ from state laws). Next: Share-as-image (canvas export), print-friendly route summary

🟢 Military Flight Tracker ⭐ NEW

Status: ✅ MVP DEPLOYED (2026-02-20) Location: ~/clawd/mil-tracker/ URL: https://mil-tracker.pages.dev Features: OpenSky polling, SQLite DB, dark Leaflet map, color-coded markers, CF Pages deploy Running: Cron every 10 min (poll + export + deploy) Next: Slack alerts for notable aircraft, tanker orbit detection, ADS-B Exchange API for unfiltered data

🟡 OSINT Cold Case Tool

Status: Prototype complete Location: ~/clawd/osint-cold-cases/ Next: Backtest against more solved cases

The Ideas (Original Dump)

Data/Scraping Plays

Reddit Gun Deals Scraper — Scrape sub, compare to historical cheap, give "temperature" rating for how fire a deal is. Ammoseek competition? Auto-stack coupons? "I saved you $X, donate 10%?"
Anonymous Twitter Following — Shortened link trick
LinkedIn OSINT — Track picture changes, contact increases
Inmate Finder — Enumerate by DOC number, build list, link with news articles, connect people to write inmates
PrawnRecs — Prompt-based discovery from comments

Consumer Apps

Disney Trip Planner — ML + Disney API to maximize rides per trip. Pick age/rides, get optimized plan. Website → App with dynamic switching.
Plunge Bath Timer (iOS) — Track time, duration, temperature, walls, sets
Genshin Tube — Rank YouTubers by popularity/rising, ads, help discovery
Pose Camera — AI detects best poses per platform/figure, marketplace for silhouettes

Tools/Utilities

CVSS Calculator — Security scoring tool
Race Profiler — Name-based demographic inference
Slack Popularity Bot — Count emoji usage, sort descending
Slap Button Gym Timer — Shows time since last set
ChatGPT for Amazon Reviews — Auto-generated buyer's guides

Physical Products

Lid Hole Punch for Kids — Multiple lid types, straw sizes
Chapstick Holster — Sticky tape to side of objects
Coffee Station — Holds V60, filters, scale, grinder
Bjorn Snuggie — Baby carrier blanket?
Soundbar TV Mount — Universal
MagSafe Tesla Charger
Machined Tea Cup — Locks into water bottle
Ban Chan Tray — Organized modular fridge storage
Better Paper Towel/Baby Wipe Dispenser — One at a time, every time

Misc/Social

Exploit Environmentalism — "Smart and stylish, but also saving the world" (Hydroflask model)
Temporary Spouse — Pay fee to use parental leave 😂

Analysis: $500 in 13 Days

Tier 1: Build This Week (High Confidence)

Idea	Days to MVP	Monetization	Why
Reddit Gun Deals	2-3	Affiliate links	Passionate niche, proven demand (Ammoseek exists), simple scraper + UI
Amazon Review Summarizer	2-3	Affiliate links	Chrome extension, GPT API, instant value
Disney Optimizer (Simple)	3-4	Charge $5-10/plan	Skip ML, just optimize ride order. High perceived value.

Tier 2: Good But Slower

Idea	Days to MVP	Monetization	Blocker
Genshin Tube	5-7	Ads	Traffic takes time to build
Pose Camera	7-14	Freemium	ML complexity
Plunge Timer	5-7	$2.99 app	App Store approval lag

Tier 3: Not 13-Day Plays

Physical products (manufacturing, inventory)
LinkedIn OSINT (TOS risk, legal gray area)
Inmate Finder (ethical complexity, data sourcing)
Temporary Spouse (lol)

Recommendation: Gun Deals First

Why:

You already know the space (ammoseek, r/gundeals)
Simple tech: scraper + price history + temperature score
Affiliate revenue is immediate (no waiting for ad traffic)
Community will share good tools organically
Can launch ugly, iterate fast

MVP features:

Scrape r/gundeals new posts
Compare price to 90-day history for that item/category
Score 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 (1-5 fire rating)
Show "historically this is X% below average"
Affiliate links to deals

Stretch:

Email/SMS alerts for 5-fire deals
Ammo price tracker
Coupon stacking suggestions

Revenue model:

Affiliate commission on clicks (2-8%)
Premium alerts ($5/mo)
"I saved you $X" donation prompt

Current Priorities (Updated 2026-02-03)

✅ Completed

~~Forex: Add Kelly position sizing~~ — DONE! (Jan 31) Created kelly_sizing.py module
~~Disney trip monitoring setup~~ — DONE! (Feb 1) Cron job running 3x/day
~~Gun Deals: Fix price parser~~ — DONE! (Feb 1) Fixed CPR bug, all 500 deals corrected
~~Paper trading v1~~ — REPLACED (Feb 2) v1 had multi-year resolution times, useless for learning
~~Paper trading v2~~ — DONE! (Feb 2) 10 short-term positions, all resolve ≤30 days
~~Live arb monitor~~ — DONE! (Feb 2) Cron job runs every 10min during NBA hours
~~Paper trade dashboard~~ — DONE! (Feb 2) Web UI with live Polymarket prices, P/L tracking
~~Second Brain: Deploy to Cloudflare Pages~~ — DONE! (Feb 4) Live at clawd-7k1.pages.dev with Access protection
~~Second Brain: Mobile responsive fix~~ — DONE! (Feb 4) Sidebar collapses into hamburger menu on mobile
~~Forex swing strategy doc~~ — DONE! (Feb 4) Complete strategy at brain/projects/forex-swing-strategy.md
~~Trading dashboard pages~~ — DONE! (Feb 4) /markets, /forex, /dashboard pages live
~~Paper trading data infrastructure~~ — DONE! (Feb 4) JSON schemas + Python utils in /trading-data/
~~Forex scanner automation~~ — DONE! (Feb 4) Multi-pair daily scan with dashboard integration + alerts

🚨 URGENT — Check with Roger

Disney ticket deadline was Feb 3 — Get Away Today deal - did Roger buy?

✅ Completed (Recent)

~~Unified Portfolio Tracker~~ — DONE! (Feb 13) trading-data/portfolio.py — CLI + Slack + Markdown. Daily 8am digest cron active.
~~PEAD position tracking~~ — DONE! (Feb 13) 4 positions (FROG, TWLO, AMAT, ZTS) tracked in earnings_positions.json

Top 3 for This Week (Updated 2026-03-20, 11:00 PM auto-ship)

🧹 Cron Pruning — Kill Weather Scanner — 7+ consecutive days of zero signals. Burning tokens for nothing. Kill or disable weather morning + evening scanner crons. Review other low-ROI crons too. This is the #1 token-saving move available.
🎮 D2 Rater — Drop Calculator SHIPPED (2026-03-20) ✅ — New "🎯 Drop Calc" tab: 12 farming spots, rune drop rates, runs-to-find calculator, /players support, Compare All Spots ranking. Deployed to CF Pages. Next D2R features: Charm inventory optimizer? Merc gear advisor?
🔑 CF Token Fix → Deploy TacticalSavings + Carry API — Both deploy-ready, both blocked on same CF read-only token. Day 15 for Carry API, Day 4 for TacticalSavings. Don't nag — mention casually when Roger re-engages.

Key Insights (Mar 20 — Compound Review)

Validate before building — Holy Grail Tracker was unnecessary because D2R has native grail tracking. Should check game features before building tools. "Does this problem still exist?" is step zero.
Roger passively engaged — Responded to auto-ship thread without initiating. The ship → feedback loop works. He's watching, not driving.
Weather scanner definitely dead — 7+ days, zero signals. Promote pruning to #1 priority. Save those tokens for actual work.
Auto-ship cycle speed is a strength — Built feature (11 PM Mar 19) → Roger feedback (9 AM Mar 20) → Removed + redeployed (9:15 AM Mar 20). 10-hour build-feedback-iterate loop.

In Progress

Agent team design — Thread started with Roger: Analyst, Builder, Sentinel, Trader agents
Bias paper trading — 10 positions open, first batch resolves Feb 6
Flight monitoring — Running smoothly, prices stable ($1,506/pp, above alert threshold)
Forex paper trading — Ready to start! Scanner + strategy doc complete

Blocked / Waiting

Real-time game arbs: Live monitoring set up, but browser may be too slow for execution (spreads close in seconds)
OSINT Tool: Ethical considerations, needs more solved-case backtesting

On Hold

Physical products (manufacturing complexity)
iOS apps (App Store approval delays)
LinkedIn OSINT (TOS risk)
DVC rental research (pushed to after Disney ticket decision)

Revenue Potential Assessment

Project	Time to Revenue	Confidence	Notes
Arb Scanner	Low priority	Low	Short-term arbs efficiently priced; long-dated locks capital for months
Forex Trading	1-2 months	Medium	Strategy validated (56.2% WR), sizing clarified (3% per trade)
Gun Deals	1-2 weeks	Medium	Deployed! Needs affiliate partnerships
Bug Bounty	1-3 months	Medium	High variance, could be $0 or $10k

Key Insights (Feb 4)

Trading infrastructure complete: Dashboard + data layer + strategy doc all built in one evening via parallel sub-agents
Second Brain is live: clawd-7k1.pages.dev with Cloudflare Access protection
Forex ready for paper trading: 30-day protocol defined, scanner working, dashboard ready

Key Insights (Feb 3)

Pre-game arbs don't exist: Markets efficiently priced before games (1-2¢ differences). Live games create windows.
Paper trade validation starts Feb 6: ROY awards resolve, then Super Bowl Feb 9. Fast feedback cycle working.
Flight monitoring stable: Both trips pricing within expected ranges. Cron job improvements working well.
Daily memory files: Created on first write, not at midnight - this is normal behavior, not an error.

Key Insights (Feb 5-6)

Crypto 15-min system built in one day: Dashboard + signals + Cloudflare worker + Binance websocket integration
Entry timing > signal accuracy: For short-term Kalshi markets, WHEN you enter matters more than how good your prediction is
ROY awards resolve Feb 6: First paper trade feedback from prediction markets
Super Bowl Feb 9: 6 halftime positions resolve — good test of the system

Key Insights (Mar 6)

PEAD paper trading done: -$30 net — 5 positions, 1 winner (TWLO +$100), 1 disaster (FROG -$115), 3 marginal. Strategy is roughly breakeven with gatekeeper filtering. Short-side (GLOB) still open.
Auto-ship on momentum works — Carry API 5→16 states overnight was high-value because Roger's already bought in. Ship what excites him.
Roger's engagement is bursty — Deep session Mar 5, silence Mar 6. Don't over-message in quiet periods.

Key Insights (Mar 5)

Carry API born in one session — research report → Roger engagement → competitive analysis → MVP built, all in 40 minutes. Parallel sub-agents = fast product iteration.
Roger re-engaged after 6 days — triggered by opportunity gap chart in daily research report. Status updates don't work; showing concrete opportunities does.
No public gun law API exists — greenfield market. Privacy-first architecture is the differentiator in 2A space.
PEAD exits processed — Mar 5 batch (TWLO, AMAT, ZTS) auto-closed. Need to compile results.

Key Insights (Mar 4)

Weather scanner was broken for weeks: Stale expired markets in DB created 400+ false signals while hiding 0 real ones. Cleanup + recalibration fixed everything.
Only 24 active Kalshi weather markets: Many city series (DC, ATL, HOU, SF, all lows) have 0 open markets. Kalshi has thin weather coverage right now.
11 tradeable signals found: All BUY NO positions on Mar 5 markets (NYC, Chicago, Miami, Denver). Edges range 16-100%.
Trade resolution works: Can now auto-check actual weather data against market thresholds to score wins/losses.

Key Insights (Mar 16 — Compound Review)

Auto-ship rotation prevents diminishing returns — 7 Carry App features in 4 nights maxed out that project's value-per-ship. TacticalSavings (gun-deals) is closer to revenue and untouched since Feb.
Roger at 6-day silence threshold — Fed resolution Wednesday is the natural, non-naggy re-engagement moment.
TacticalSavings has a fixable problem — 96% of deals have fire_rating=0. Fixing the scoring algorithm unlocks the entire site's value prop.

Key Insights (Mar 15 — Night Ship)

Permit comparison table ships fast — All data was already in states-data.js and permit-data.js. Feature is a view layer on top of existing infrastructure.
Preemption warnings are high-safety-value — States like NY, CA, CO where local laws can override state laws are genuinely dangerous for travelers. Warning users costs nothing and adds real value.
7 features in 4 nights — Carry app went from static map to full trip planning platform. Diminishing returns setting in — next ship should be a different project.

Last reviewed: 2026-03-20 10:30 PM PT (nightly compound review)