February 3, 2026 — Tuesday

Key Work

Daily Research: Bayesian Updating

Applied Bayesian reasoning to prediction markets:

• Worked example: Drake halftime sighting would move 7% → 31%
• Market at 15% = slow to react = edge opportunity
• Math tells you how much to care about news

Action: Track evidence trail for Super Bowl positions, calculate calibration post-resolution.

🚀 Shipped: Gun Deals Affiliate Link Converter

Complete monetization system for Gun Deals:

Supported Networks:

• AvantLink: PSA, Primary Arms, Academy, Gun Mag Warehouse
• CJ Affiliate: Bass Pro, Cabela's, OpticsPlanet
• Direct: MidwayUSA, Sportsman's Guide

How it works:

1. Slack alerts check URLs against config
2. Enabled retailers get affiliate parameters appended
3. Stats tracked for conversions

Next step: Roger signs up for AvantLink, applies for PSA (highest volume: 34 deals), gets affiliate ID.

Revenue potential: ~$27/month conservative with current volume.

Key Dates

• Feb 6: ROY awards resolve (first paper trade results!)
• Feb 9: Super Bowl halftime positions resolve
• Feb 15-20: Cancún family trip