February 2, 2026 — Monday

Key Work

Prediction Market Bias Exploitation

Built complete strategy based on jbecker.dev research (72.1M trades, $18.26B volume):

• Longshot bias: 1¢ contracts have 57% mispricing
• YES/NO asymmetry: YES contracts underperform (optimism tax)
• Category inefficiency: Media 7.28%, Entertainment 4.79%, Finance 0.17%

Strategy: "Nothing ever happens" — dramatic outcomes are overpriced. Sell YES on longshots.

Paper Trading v2

Roger called out v1 for multi-year resolution times — useless for learning. Rebuilt with SHORT-TERM focus:

10 positions, all resolve within 30 days:

• 2 NBA ROY awards (resolve Feb 6)
• 6 Super Bowl halftime positions (resolve Feb 9)
• 2 other short-term markets

Thesis: Fast feedback validates strategy before real capital.

🚀 Shipped: Paper Trade Dashboard

Web UI tracking all positions with live Polymarket prices:

• Unrealized P/L per position
• Color-coded profit/loss
• Days-to-resolution countdown
• Auto-refresh every 5 minutes

Live Arb Monitoring

Pre-game markets are efficient (1-2¢ differences). But live games create windows. Created cron job for NBA hours.

Learnings

• Pre-game arbs don't exist — efficient pricing
• Paper trading needs fast feedback (≤30 days)
• Interactive work → me; automated work → cron jobs